2025 Hurricane Season

Review of 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts and Hurricane Preparedness

As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches its peak, multiple leading meteorological sources are forecasting an above-average season. Influenced by warm ocean waters and shifting climate patterns, this year’s predictions suggest increased storm frequency and intensity compared to the long-term average. This makes personal and community preparedness more important than ever—for both coastal and inland residents.

Forecast Highlights for 2025

• NOAA and BBC Weather expect an “above-normal” season.
• Colorado State University’s April 2025 forecast predicts:
  • 17 Named Storms (average: 14.4)
  • 9 Hurricanes (average: 7.2)
  • 4 Major Hurricanes (average: 3.2)
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): 155 (average: 123)
• NOAA gives a 70% confidence range of:
  • 13–19 Named Storms
  • 6–10 Hurricanes
  • 3–5 Major Hurricanes
• The probability of major hurricane landfall in the U.S. and Caribbean is above historical averages, though forecasts do not predict specific landfalls.

Climate Conditions Driving the Forecast

Several environmental factors are contributing to the high-activity forecast for 2025:

• Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Warmer-than-normal SSTs in the tropical Atlantic promote storm formation and intensification.
• ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation): The Pacific is transitioning from weak La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions. Both patterns typically reduce wind shear over the Atlantic, favoring storm development.
• West African Monsoon: Tropical waves from this region can seed strong Atlantic hurricanes, especially when the monsoon shifts northward.
• Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM): A positive AMM phase, with reduced trade winds and warmer tropical waters, supports more hurricane activity.

How Hurricanes Form

According to NOAA and other sources, hurricanes require:

• Ocean temperatures of at least 26.5°C (80°F) down to 50 meters
• Thunderstorm activity and mid-level moisture
• Low vertical wind shear (minimal changes in wind speed or direction with altitude)

These storms start as disturbances, such as tropical waves, and grow as warm ocean air fuels a cycle of rising air, pressure drops, and storm intensification. A tropical cyclone becomes a hurricane when sustained winds reach 74 mph.

Hurricane Impacts: Coastal and Inland Threats

Hurricanes pose a wide range of hazards:

• Storm Surge: A temporary rise in sea level during a hurricane can flood coastal areas. Surge severity depends on storm speed, ocean floor shape, coastline geometry, and wind direction.
• Wind Damage: High winds can destroy buildings, knock down trees and power lines, and send debris flying.
• Flooding: Both coastal and inland flooding can occur from heavy rains and storm surge. Inland areas may see rivers and streams overflow, cutting off access and damaging infrastructure.
• Extended Power and Utility Outages: Weeks-long outages are possible, especially in remote or hard-hit areas.

Injuries and deaths often result from drowning, structural collapses, and improper generator use.

Preparedness is Critical

Authorities like FEMA and Ready.gov stress the importance of acting before storms strike. Below are essential steps for preparing for hurricane season:

Stay Informed

• Sign up for local alerts.
• Use NOAA Weather Radio for continuous updates.
• Understand the difference:
  • Watch: Possible hurricane conditions within 48 hours
  • Warning: Expected hurricane conditions within 36 hours

Make an Evacuation and Shelter Plan

• Know evacuation routes and shelter options.
• Prepare a “go bag” with essentials: food, water, medications, documents, and supplies for pets.
• Ensure your vehicle has at least half a tank of gas.

Establish Emergency Communication

• Designate an out-of-town contact.
• Write down important numbers and practice your plan with family members.

Stock Emergency Supplies

• Three days of non-perishable food and water per person
• Flashlights, batteries, first-aid kits, hygiene products
• Protective gear, blankets, and items for infants or pets

Protect Your Property

• Reinforce doors, windows, and roofs.
• Trim trees and secure outdoor objects.
• Install sump pumps and sewer backflow valves.
• Waterproof basements and elevate electrical systems if flood-prone.

Consider Flood Insurance

Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage. Policies through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) take 30 days to activate—so don’t delay.

What to Do During and After a Hurricane

During:

• Evacuate immediately if instructed by local authorities.
• Stay indoors in an interior, windowless room on the lowest safe level.
• Never walk or drive through floodwaters—Turn Around, Don’t Drown.
• Keep generators outside, at least 20 feet from any doors or windows.

After:

• Return only when authorities declare it safe.
• Check for structural damage and downed power lines.
• Boil or purify water before drinking if contamination is suspected.
• Discard perishable or flood-exposed food.
• Use gloves and sturdy footwear when cleaning up debris or mud.

Forecasting Methods and Limitations

Seasonal forecasts like those from NOAA and CSU rely on computer models, historical patterns, and real-time ocean and atmospheric data. While these forecasts are increasingly accurate, they are not landfall predictions. Local impacts depend on storm paths that can only be determined days in advance.

Conclusion

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be more active than normal, and residents across coastal and inland regions should not be complacent. Preparedness can reduce injury, loss of life, and property damage. By understanding the climate drivers behind hurricane activity and following expert preparedness advice, individuals and communities can increase their resilience and response readiness.

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